The Next Killer Flu - Can We Stop It?
Flu season is just around the corner once again. But this time, it may be coming disguised as a serial killer.
There is deep concern that a new killer flu, nicknamed “Bird Flu,” may mix with ordinary flu and kill millions of people. This is how Robert Webster of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis characterizes this killer flu — and take note that Dr. Webster has been studying influenza for the past 40 years:
“This virus right from scratch is probably the worst influenza virus, in terms of being highly pathogenic, that I’ve ever seen or worked with.”
Public health experts, including those at the World Health Organization, fear a catastrophe.
In preparation, the United States has ordered 2.3 million doses of an antiviral called “Tamiflu.” 2.3 million for a country of 300 million. However, the U.S. has decided to place all of its chips on an experimental vaccine, a vaccine that is based on an early seed of bird flu, which most experts agree has already mutated into something quite different, and that means when bird flu gets here, it may not respond to any vaccine.
The most astonishing fact about this new bird flu virus is how much science doesn’t know about it. The mystery remains of how people get infected. Is it by breathing the air near feces? By eating duck meat? By touching? Nobody really knows.
Meanwhile, health authorities continue to slaughter infected fowl, experiment with genetic variations, and run computer simulations on panic control. It’s clear that hospitals and first responders will be completely overwhelmed, as will mortuaries.
If you aren’t afraid at this point, then take a moment to read the cover essay of the October 2005 issue of National Geographic. Study those photos. Analyze those tables and charts. Then ask yourself, what are the odds that a killer virus will hit my home town, my family this flu season? Right now, WHO says the odds are 10% the killer will pick you.
So, I’m not sure if you’re advocating getting the vaccination or if you’re just putting the information out there. The way I’m reading this, it seems that the vaccine probably wouldn’t work anyway, but then what is there to do if that’s the case?
This virus seems quite deadly. We cannot stop it. But we have to prevent it from spreading. And we have to be cautious as to where we take our food and how good the food is cooked. Be sure we eat at the place were food is hygienic and cooked likewise. The government authorities will be doing their best to ensure they do not get spread.
It’s been around in Europe for a couple of years, but still no sign of it crossing the animal/human barrier here. At first there was a great deal of fairly hysterical reaction but now when a case is identified, there is an exclusion zone around the vicinity until there are no more cases. It seems most come directly from wild birds. At one time when it first started all domestic birds such as chickens had to be kept under cover, but those stringent regulations have been reduced. The only cases of humans getting the disease, from what I’ve heard, are where humans and birds live in extremely close proximity as in parts of Asia. There don’t appear to be any cases yet where it has then gone from human to human. All the same the UK is increasing it’s supply of Tamiflu and Relenza so that half the population can be treated if it becomes necessary.
There are several well documented cases of human to human transmission and roughly a third to a half of human cases have no history of contact with infected poultry. That having been said, as of 19 June (the last update) there have been only 385 cases and 243 deaths since H5N1 re-emerged in 2003. Thus is its true that while exposure is very prevalent because over 60 countries have reported infected poultry human infection is still relatively uncommon. However there the current form of the virus is highly virulent for humans (meaning it causes very severe disease when a person is infected) with a case fatality rate of over 60%, many times worse than the 1918 influenza (which was subtype H1N1). Since negative sense RNA viruses like influenza mutate rapidly (there is no genetic proof reading so many “mistakes” are made when the virus replicates) flu scientists are deeply concerned that by random mutation some virus somewhere will happen upon the right recipe for facile human to human transmission and a pandemic will result.
There currently is no vaccine, since a pandemic strain has yet to emerge. Experimental prepandemic vaccines against H5N1 are of unknown efficacy. Moreover the US does not have the public health infrastructure to assure its production and distribution. Tamiflu and Relenza, the two neuriminidase inhibitors thought to be effective are also of unknown efficacy against H5N1. Resistant strains to both, especially Tamiflu, have been emerging in the seasonal flu virus H1N1. So using pharmaceuticals is not likely to stave off or mitigate a pandemic. True community preparation consists in strengthening the public health and social service infrastructure.
There is a great deal of information available on the web. For those interested in preparation (”prepping” in the jargon) you can go to Get Pandemic Ready, for general exchange of info, THe Flu Wiki, for news filter and commentary, Crof’s blog H5N1 and the links on the sidebar, and for science commentary, our site, Effect Measure. The US government site is http://www.pandemicflu.gov.
Hi
Where did you get words for this paper? Is it from your head???